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In May the Bush economy eked out a paltry 73,000 private sector jobs: 20,000 jobs
in construction (primarily for Mexican immigrants), 21,000 jobs in wholesale and
retail trade, and 32,500 jobs in health care and social assistance. Local government
added 5,000 for a grand total of 78,000.
Not a single one of these jobs produces an exportable good or service. With
Americans increasingly divorced from the production of the goods and services
that they consume, Americans have no way to pay for their consumption except
by handing over to foreigners more of their accumulated stock of wealth. The
country continues to eat its seed corn.
Only 10 million Americans are classified as "production workers"
in the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll tables. Think about that.
The US with a population approaching 300 million has only 10 million production
workers. That means
Americans are consuming the products of other countries labor.
In the 21st century the US economy has been unable to create jobs in export
and import-competitive industries. US job growth is confined to nontradable
domestic services.
This movement of the American labor force toward third world occupations in
domestic services has dire implications both for US living standards and for
America's status as a superpower.
Economists and policymakers are in denial while the US economy implodes in
front of their noses. The US-China Commission is making a great effort to bring
reality to policymakers by holding a series of hearings to explore the depths
of American decline.
The commissioners got an earful at the May 19 hearings in New York at the Council
on Foreign Relations. Ralph Gomory explained that America's naïve belief
that offshore outsourcing and globalism are working for America is based on
a 200 year old trade theory, the premises of which do not reflect the modern
world.
Clyde Prestowitz, author of the just published Three Billion New Capitalists:
The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East, explained that America's prosperity
is an illusion. Americans feel prosperous because they are consuming $700 billion
annually more than they are producing. Foreigners, principally Asians, are financing
US over-consumption, because we are paying them by handing over our markets,
our jobs, and our wealth.
My former Business Week colleague, Bill Wolman, explained the consequences
for US workers of suddenly facing direct labor market competition from hundreds
of millions of Chinese and Indian workers.
Toward the end of the 20th century three developments came together that are
rapidly moving high productivity, high value-added jobs that pay well away from
the US to Asia: the collapse of world socialism which vastly increased the supply
of labor available to US capital; the rise of the high speed Internet; the extraordinary
international mobility of US capital and technology.
First world capital is rapidly deserting first world labor in favor of third
world labor, which is much cheaper because of its abundance and low cost of
living. Formerly, America's high real incomes were protected from cheap foreign
labor, because US labor worked with more capital and better technology, which
made it more productive. Today, however, US capital and technology move to cheap
labor, or cheap labor moves via the Internet to US employment.
The reason economic development in China and some Indian cities is so rapid
is because it is fueled by the offshore location of first world corporations.
Prestowitz is correct that the form that globalism has taken is shifting income
and wealth from the first world to the third world. The rise of Asia is coming
at the expense of the American worker.
Global competition could have developed differently. US capital and technology
could have remained at home, protecting US incomes with high productivity. Asia
would have had to raise itself up without the inside track of first world offshore
producers.
Asia's economic development would have been slow and laborious and would have
been characterized by a gradual rise of Asian incomes toward US incomes, not
by a jarring loss of American jobs and incomes to Asians.
Instead, US corporations, driven by the short-sighted and ultimately destructive
focus on quarterly profits,
chose to drive earnings and managerial bonuses by substituting cheap Asian
labor for American labor.
American businesses' short-run profit maximization plays directly into the
hands of thoughtful Asian governments with long-run strategies. As Prestowitz
informed the commissioners, China now has more semiconductor plants than the
US. Short-run goals are reducing US corporations to brand names with sales forces
marketing foreign made goods and services.
By substituting foreign for American workers, US corporations are destroying
their American markets. As American jobs in the higher paying manufacturing
and professional services are given to Asians, and as American schoolteachers
and nurses lose their occupations to foreigners imported under work visa programs,
American purchasing power dries up, especially once all the home equity is spent,
credit cards are maxed out and the dollar loses value to the Asian currencies.
The dollar is receiving a short-term respite as a result of the rejection of
the European Union by France and Holland. The fate of the Euro, which rose so
rapidly in value against the dollar in recent years, is uncertain, thus possibly
cutting off one avenue of escape from the over-produced US dollar.
However, nothing is in the works to halt America's decline and to put the economy
on a path of true prosperity. In January 2004, I told a televised conference
of the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, that the US would be a third
world economy in 20 years. I was projecting the economic outcome of the US labor
force being denied first world employment and forced into the low productivity
occupations of domestic services.
Considering the vast excess supplies of labor in India and China, Asian wages
are unlikely to rapidly approach existing US levels. Therefore, the substitution
of Asian for US labor in tradable goods and services is likely to continue.
As US students seek employments immune from outsourcing, engineering enrollments
are declining.
The exit of so much manufacturing is destroying the supply chains that make
manufacturing possible.
The Asians will not give us back our economy once we have lost it. They will
not play the "free trade" game and let their labor force be displaced
by cheap American labor.
Offshore outsourcing is dismantling the ladders of America's fabled upward
mobility. The US labor force already has one foot in the third world. By 2024
the US will be a has-been country.
Paul Craig Roberts has held a number of academic appointments and has contributed
to numerous scholarly publications. He served as Assistant Secretary of the
Treasury in the Reagan administration. His graduate economics education was
at the University of Virginia, the University of California at Berkeley, and
Oxford University. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.He can be
reached at: paulcraigroberts@yahoo.com