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TEL AVIV - Israel would likely be able to produce enough plutonium for at least
one nuclear bomb by 1965-66, the CIA estimated as early as 1961, recently declassified
documents show.
The documents, first published by Ynet, indicate that despite appearances to
the contrary, the Americans estimated at that early stage Israel was misleading
the United States and acting to acquire nuclear armaments.
The most fascinating declassified document, at least to Israeli eyes, is a
national intelligence assessment from September 21, 1961, less than a year after
former Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion declared the nuclear facility in Dimona
was a research center intended for peaceful purposes only.
Despite the announcement, the Americans apparently saw the nascent Israeli
nuclear program in a somewhat different light than that presented by Ben-Gurion.
Indeed, the document names only Israel and France as the two countries the CIA
was convinced had already made a decision to go nuclear at that time.
Notably, several months earlier, then-President John F. Kennedy sent U.S. inspectors
to Dimona. The inspectors reported there were no clear signs on the ground of
a nuclear arms program.
American taboo continues to erode
According to the recently declassified documents, the U.S. government possessed
significant evidence indicating Israel was indeed pursuing a nuclear path aimed
at producing weapons.
As noted above, the document estimated that should Israel set up a plutonium-producing
facility, it would likely be able to produce a nuclear weapon within several
years. The document also noted Israel was in possession of a French-made bomber
that would have been able to carry nuclear weapons to a 550-mile range.
The decision to declassify the documents marks the continuation of the erosion
of the American taboo on matters related to Israel's nuclear power.
Notably, the document also includes some assessments that may still be relevant
today. For one thing, intelligence analysts who prepared the estimate wrote
that no international convention would be able to prevent a determined government
from acquiring nuclear arms. Could this be a harbinger of things to come?