Untitled Document
How the Economic News is Spun
Readers ask me to reconcile the jobs and debt data that I report to them with
the positive economic outlook and good news that comes to them from regular
news sources. Some readers are being snide, but most are sincere.
I am pleased to provide the explanation. First, let me give my reassurances
that the numbers I report to you come straight from official US government statistics.
I do not massage the numbers or rework them in any way. I cannot assure you
that the numbers are perfectly reported to, and collected by, the government,
but they are the only numbers we have.
Here is how to reconcile my reports with the good news you get from
the mainstream media:
(1) When the US Department of Labor, for example, releases
the monthly payroll jobs data, the press release will put the best spin on the
data. The focus is on the aggregate number of new jobs created the previous
month, for example, 150,000 new jobs. That sounds good. News reporters report
the press release. They do not look into the data to see what kinds of jobs
have been created and what kinds are being lost. They do not look back in time
and provide a net job creation number over a longer period of time.
This is why the American public is unaware that higher paid jobs in export
and import-competitive industries are being phased out along with engineering
and other professional "knowledge jobs" and replaced with lower paid
jobs in domestic services. The replacement of higher paid jobs with lower paid
jobs is one reason for the decline in median household income over the past
five years. It is not a large decline, but it is a decline. How can it be possible
for the economy to be doing well when median household income is not growing
and when economic growth is based on increased consumer indebtedness?
Many economists mistake offshore outsourcing with free trade based on comparative
advantage. As a result of this mistake, ideology speaks instead of economic
analysis. For example, Matthew J. Slaughter, an economics professor at Dartmouth,
commits a huge error when he writes: "for every one job that US multinationals
created abroad in their foreign affiliates they created nearly two US jobs in
their parent operations." If Slaughter had consulted the BLS payroll jobs
data, he would have realized that his claim could not possibly be true. Slaughter
did not come to his conclusion by examining aggregate job creation. Instead,
he measured the growth of US multinational employment and failed to take into
account the two reasons for an increase in multinational employment: (1) multinationals
acquired many existing smaller firms, thus raising multinational employment
but not overall employment, and (2) many firms established foreign operations
for the first time and thereby became multinationals, thus adding their existing
employment to Slaughter's number for multinational employment.
ABC News' John Stossel, a libertarian hero, recently made a similar error.
In debunking Lou Dobbs' concern with US jobs lost to offshore outsourcing, Stossel
invokes the California-based company, Collabnet. He quotes the CEO's claim that
outsourcing saves his company money and lets him hire more Americans. Turning
to Collabnet's web page, it is very interesting to see the employment opportunities
that the company posts for the US and for India.
In India, Collabnet has openings for 8 engineers, a sales engineer, a technical
writer, and a tele-marketing representative. In the US, Collabnet has openings
for one engineer, a receptionist/office assistant, and positions in marketing,
sales, services, and operations. Collabnet is a perfect example of what Lou
Dobbs and I report: the engineering and design jobs move abroad, and Americans
are employed to sell and market the foreign made products.
(2) Wall Street economists are salesmen. The companies that
employ them want to sell stocks and bonds. They don't want bad news. A bear
market is not good for business. Similarly, business associations have the agenda
of their members. Offshore outsourcing reduces their labor costs and boosts
their profits and performance-based bonuses. Therefore, it is natural that their
association reports put a positive spin on outsourcing. The same organizations
benefit from work visas that allow them to bring foreign workers in as indentured
servants to replace their more fractious and higher paid American employees.
Thus, the myth of a US shortage of engineers and scientists. This myth is used
to wheedle more subsidies in the form of more H-1B visas out of Congress.
(3) Official US government reports are written to obfuscate
serious problems for which the government has no solution. For example, "The
Economic Report of the President," written by the Council of Economic Advisers,
blames the huge US trade deficit on the low rate of domestic savings. The report
claims that if only Americans would save more of their incomes, they would not
spend so much on imports, and the $726 billion trade gap would close.
This analysis is nonsensical on its face. Offshore outsourcing has turned US
production into imports. Americans are now dependent on offshore production
for their clothes, manufactured goods and advanced technology products. There
are simply no longer domestic suppliers of many of the products on which Americans
depend.
Moreover, many Americans are struggling to make ends meet, having lost their
jobs to offshore outsourcing. They are living on credit cards and struggling
to make minimum payments. Median household real incomes are falling as higher
paid jobs are outsourced while Americans are relegated to lower paying jobs
in domestic services.
They haven't a dollar to save. As Charles McMillion points out, the February
28 report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that all GDP growth in
the fourth quarter of 2005 was due to the accumulation of unsold inventory and
that consumers continued to outspend their incomes.
Matthew Spiegleman, a Confeence Board economist, claims that manufacturing
jobs are only slightly higher paid than domestic service jobs. He reaches this
conclusion by comparing only hourly pay and by leaving out the longer manufacturing
work week and the associated benefits, such as health care and pensions.
Stossel simply does not know enough economics to be aware that he is being
used. The bought-and-paid-for-economists are simply earning their living and
their grants by serving the interests of corporate outsourcers.
(4) Policy reports from think tanks reflect what the donors
want to hear. Truth can be "negative" and taken as a reflection on
the favored administration in power. Consider, for example, the conservative,
Bruce Bartlett, who was recently fired by the National Center for Policy Analysis
for writing a truthful book about George Bush's economic policies. Donors to
NCPA saw Bartlett's truthful book as an attack on George Bush, their hero, and
withheld $165,000 in donations. There were not enough Bartlett supporters to
step in and fill the gap, so he was fired in order to save donations.
When I held the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, I saw internal memos describing the grants
CSIS could receive from the George H.W. Bush administration in exchange for
removing me from the Simon chair.
In America "truth" has long been for sale. We see it in expert witness
testimony, in the corrupt reports from forensic labs that send innocent people
to prison, and even in policy disputes among scientists themselves. In scholarship,
ideas that are too challenging to prevailing opinion have a rough row to hoe
and often cannot get a hearing.
Even the president of Harvard University, Larry Summers, an academic economist
of some note and a former Secretary of the Treasury, was forced to resign because
he offered a politically incorrect hypothesis about the relative scarcity of
women in science.
The few reporters and columnists who are brave or naive enough to speak out
are constrained by editors who are constrained by owners and advertisers. For
example, it is impermissible to examine the gaping holes in the 9/11 Commission
Report. Publications and editors are intimidated by the charge of "conspiracy
theory," just as criticism of Israel is muted for fear of being labeled
"anti-semitic."
All of these reasons and others make truth a scarce commodity.
Censorship exists everywhere and is especially heavy in the US mainstream
media.
Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury
in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal
editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of
The
Tyranny of Good Intentions.He can be reached at: paulcraigroberts@yahoo.com