Untitled Document
· Analysis issued by USAid in reconstruction effort
· Account belies picture painted by White House
An official assessment drawn up by the US foreign aid agency depicts
the security situation in Iraq as dire, amounting to a "social breakdown"
in which criminals have "almost free rein".
The "conflict assessment" is an attachment to an invitation to contractors
to bid on a project rehabilitating Iraqi cities published earlier this month
by the US Agency for International Development (USAid).
The picture it paints is not only darker than the optimistic accounts from
the White House and the Pentagon, it also gives a more complex profile of the
insurgency than the straightforward "rejectionists, Saddamists and terrorists"
described by George Bush.
The USAid analysis talks of an "internecine conflict" involving religious,
ethnic, criminal and tribal groups. "It is increasingly common for tribesmen
to 'turn in' to the authorities enemies as insurgents - this as a form of tribal
revenge," the paper says, casting doubt on the efficacy of counter-insurgent
sweeps by coalition and Iraqi forces.
Meanwhile, foreign jihadist groups are growing in strength, the report said.
"External fighters and organisations such as al-Qaida and the Iraqi offshoot
led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi are gaining in number and notoriety as significant
actors," USAid's assessment said. "Recruitment into the ranks of these
organisations takes place throughout the Sunni Muslim world, with most suicide
bombers coming from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region."
The assessment conflicted sharply with recent Pentagon claims that Zarqawi's
group was in "disarray".
The USAid document was attached to project documents for the Focused Stabilisation
in Strategic Cities Initiative, a $1.3bn (£740m) project to curb violence
in cities such as Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Kirkuk and Najaf, through job creation
and investment in local communities.
The paper, whose existence was first reported by the Washington Post, argues
that insurgent attacks "significantly damage the country's infrastructure
and cause a tide of adverse economic and social effects that ripple across Iraq".
"In the social breakdown that has accompanied the defeat of Saddam Hussein's
regime criminal elements within Iraqi society have had almost free rein,"
the document says. "In the absence of an effective police force capable
of ensuring public safety, criminal elements flourish ... Baghdad is reportedly
divided into zones controlled by organised criminal groups-clans."
The lawlessness has had an impact on basic freedoms, USAid argues, particularly
in the south, where "social liberties have been curtailed dramatically
by roving bands of self-appointed religious-moral police". USAid officials
did not respond to calls seeking comment yesterday.
Judith Yaphe, a former CIA expert on Iraq now teaching at the National Defence
University in Washington, said while the administration's pronouncements on
security were rosy, the USAid version was pessimistic. "It's a very difficult
environment, but if I read this right, they are saying there is violence everywhere
and I don't think it's true," Ms Yaphe said. She said USAid could have
published the document to pressure the White House to increase its funding.
The administration does not intend to request more reconstruction funds after
the end of this year.