The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical
team to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio
presidential exit poll data. NEDA's analysis provides virtually irrefutable
evidence of vote miscount.
(PRWEB) January 17, 2006 -- There is significant controversy about whether
the 2004 presidential election was conducted fairly and its votes counted correctly.
According to results of the major national election exit poll conducted for
the National Election Pool by Edison/Mitofsky (E/M), Kerry won Ohio's pivotal
vote, though the official tally gave the state, and thus the presidency, to
Bush. The conduct of Ohio's election was formally debated by Congress in January
The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to
release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio presidential
exit poll data "The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio Precinct-level Exit Poll
Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount" available at
NEDA's analysis provides significant evidence of an outcome-altering vote miscount.
The analysis is based on the most accurate statistical method yet devised for
determining whether exit poll error, random variations, or vote count manipulation
cause the discrepancies between exit polls and official vote tallies. This analysis
method was made public recently by NEDA in "Vote Miscounts or Exit Poll
Error? New Mathematical Function for Analyzing Exit Poll Discrepancy" available
Exit Polls were conducted in 49 of Ohio’s 11,360 precincts. At least
40% of Ohio's polled precincts show statistically significant differences between
Kerry’s exit poll percent and official vote count percent. 35% of these
exit polls overestimated the Kerry official vote share. This is five times the
number expected. Three of the most glaring examples are:
1. In E/M precinct 27, with an estimated 100 respondents,
Kerry’s official vote count was 29% less than his exit poll share, creating
a 58% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins.
There is less than a one in 867,205,500 chance of this occurring due to chance.
2. In E/M precinct 25, with an estimated 62 respondents,
Kerry’s official vote count was 28% less than his exit poll share, creating
a 56% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins.
There is less than a one in 234,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.
3. In E/M precinct 48, with an estimated 100 respondents,
Kerry's official vote was 16% less than his exit poll share, creating a 32%
difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There
is less than a one in 17,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.
There are also two precincts where the Bush official vote count is significantly
less than the Bush exit poll share. The number of significant discrepancies
and the pattern of Ohio's discrepancy shown in the NEDA report provide strong
support for the conclusion that vote count errors converted a Kerry win to a
New electronic voting equipment without voter verified paper ballots, implemented
under the 2002 Help America Vote Act, makes it easier for a small number of
people to manipulate vote counts and nearly impossible to independently audit
vote count accuracy. Virtually every county in America today publicly reports
its vote counts in a way that hides evidence of miscounts. This allows those
with access (whether authorized or not) to manipulate or make mistakes in vote
counting with negligible possibility of detection.
Without accurate elections, America is not a democracy. NEDA urges the media
to publicize the results of this report and its recommendations, in order to
return to the American people their right to determine the country’s leaders.
About the National Election Data Archive
The National Election Data Archive is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization whose
mission is to scientifically investigate the accuracy of elections through the
creation and analysis of a database containing precinct-level vote-type election
data for the entire United States. By making detailed election data publicly
available NEDA furthers its goal of providing the means for independent analysts
to evaluate the accuracy of vote counts in time to ensure that properly elected
candidates are sworn into office following future elections.