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Forgive me if I cannot whip up too much excitement over the coming Iraqi elections.
Apart from my innate scepticism as to US intentions after its pretexts for going
to war were blown apart, the words of an Iraqi diplomat who insisted he was a
close friend of Eyad Allawi add fuel to the embers.
"The outcome of the elections is more or less a done deal," he told
me. "Allawi is set to continue."
I took this statement with a fistful of salt until I read this in last Sunday's
Times: "fears of a takeover by Shiite clerics have prompted speculation
that Washington might have been trying to strike a deal with Al Sistani to keep
Allawi as prime minister after the election".
Tipped to oust Allawi is head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution
in Iraq Abdul-Aziz Al Hakim and he is clamouring for American troops to go home
pronto.
Since Bush has promised the occupying forces will abide by the wishes of a
sovereign Iraqi government, his call could prove embarrassing.
Let's face it, US troops aren't about to go anywhere especially since neighbouring
Iran features large on the 2005 pre-emption menu.
We would have to be either naïve or on Prozac to believe the Bush administration
is poised to walk off into the sunset sans oil and sans face, leaving an Iraqi
government representing the Shiite majority free to cosy up to the Iranian ayatollahs.
Even if the United States isn't engaged in manipulative hanky panky, the election
is defective from the start.
UN monitors are understandably scarce on the ground and three or four Sunni
provinces (containing almost half the country's entire population) will be virtually
excluded due to rising levels of violence.
Allawi's attempt
Indeed, heralding the new Iraqi democracy are closed borders and airport, travel
restrictions and curfews, while candidates and the location of polling stations
will remain secret until the last minute.
Allawi's bid already looks suspect after he doled out $100 bills to reporters
hoping for favourable coverage.
The Riverbend girl blogger refuses to be seduced. She says she found an "Elect
Allawi" pamphlet promising "security and prosperity for occupied Iraq",
which fitted nicely at the bottom of a parakeet's cage.
She complains: "People in many areas are being told that if they don't
vote … the food and supply rations we are supposed to get monthly will
be cut off," and asks, "what sort of democracy is it when you force
people to go vote for someone or another they don't want?"
The idea that Allawi has a mega following is frankly laughable. This is a former
Baathist who fell out with Saddam Hussain and forged links with the CIA.
Few had even heard of him before he replaced Ahmad Chalabi in the Pentagon's
affections. So low has Chalabi sunk that the interim Iraqi Defence Minister
is threatening to hand him over to Jordan where he was convicted in absentia
for embezzlement.
Allawi cheered on the flattening of Fallujah and supports the American military
presence, so it is hardly likely he would attract a significant popular vote.
Iraqis know that Allawi perpetuates the lie their country is now a sovereign
state.
Clearly aware who his masters are, Allawi's speech before the US Congress was
ridiculed as being designed to aid Bush's re-election and probably dreamt up
by Bush's own speechwriters.
"We are succeeding in Iraq," he said, before thanking his audience
for "your brave vote in 2002 to authorise American men and women to go
to war to liberate my country … ".
No condemnation concerning the use of cluster bombs, which are regularly responsible
for small children losing their limbs. No condemnation of the use of depleted
uranium tank shells responsible for a prevalence in birth defects and cancers.
No condemnation of the deaths of up to 100,000 Iraqi civilians and not a word
about the torture and abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib.
Allawi is no patriot and if he remains prime minister after the vote, then,
as far as I am concerned it was a sham, a pre-arranged set-up just as the Iraqi
diplomat confided it would be.
The release of an audio tape by the elusive Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, which announces:
"We have declared a fierce war on this evil principle of democracy and
those who follow this wrong ideology" just days before the election, is
strangely reminiscent of that released by the even more elusive Osama Bin Laden
days before the US vote, said to have swayed voters in Bush's direction.
Fit the profile
"Evil principle of democracy?" Bush always said that they, the terrorists,
hate democracy. It looks like Zarqawi is only too happy to fit the profile.
If you believe that anyone believes democracy is evil, I've got a nice Egyptian
pyramid I'd like to sell you with a free camel if you purchase two.
Donald Rumsfeld was quick to acknowledge that this election will be far from
perfect but believes a flawed election is better than no election.
The trouble is democracy isn't a loaf of bread. There is no such thing as half
democracy. Elections are either comprehensive, inclusive, free and fair or they
are not.
Iraqis deserve a prosperous, peaceful and democratic Iraq but I doubt this
is possible as long as the occupation forces stay. They have their agenda; the
Iraqi people have theirs and both are mutually exclusive.
A paper entitled "Rebuilding America's Defences" drawn up by the
Project for a New American Century in 2000 and signed up to by several top members
of the Bush administration suggests US troops need to establish a permanent
foothold in the Gulf, while keeping a low profile.
Once Iraq is officially stamped a democracy and American soldiers withdraw
to a series of permanent bases or behind the walls of the largest and most fortified
US embassy in the world, the Strauss-cons will have achieved their objective
occupation in democracy's clothing.
Although whether they will be allowed to get away with this giant con is an
entirely different matter.
Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted
at lheard@gulfnews.com