Untitled Document
Fastest Decline in Real Wages on Record
Employers' wage costs grew 2.3% over the past year, the slowest growth
rate on record, according to today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Factoring in the recent energy-driven increase in inflation, the real wage is
down 2.3%, also the largest real loss on record for this series that began in
1981.
With hourly wages falling in real terms, the only way working families
can raise their incomes is by working more hours-certainly not the path to improving
living standards that we would expect in an economy posting strong productivity
gains.
This 2.3% rate is a slight tick down from the 2.4%--the previous historical
low--that prevailed for the last four quarters. Compensation-wages plus benefits-also
grew more slowly in the third quarter of this year, up 3.1% over the same quarter
last year, the slowest yearly growth in six years.
For the first time in this employers' costs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
presented these values adjusted for inflation. Both wages and compensation are
losing growth in real terms, down 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively, as slower nominal
wage growth is colliding with faster inflation. In both cases, these are the
largest yearly real losses on record.
This is a broad measure of earnings, including all civilian workers. It thus
reveals an ongoing, important imbalance in this economic expansion. Overall
measures of economic performance, such as gross domestic product, continue to
perform well. For example, real GDP grew by 3.8% in the third quarter, above
expectations and an acceleration over the 3.3% GDP growth rate of last quarter.
Yet the wage and compensation results show that this growth is failing to show
up in hourly earnings. This has two implications. First, the view that increasing
labor costs are pushing up prices is clearly not supported by these data. There
is no evidence of an over-heating labor market that needs to be cooled by Federal
Reserve rate hikes. Second, the resulting stagnant hourly wages will make it
hard for working families to truly get ahead.