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U.S. forces have started fighting Syrians at Iraq's border. Can anybody
say 'Cambodia'?
As I suspected six months ago, U.S. military and Bush administration
civilian officials confirmed last week that U.S. forces have invaded Syria and
engaged in combat with Syrian forces.
An unknown number of Syrians are acknowledged to have been killed; the
number of Americans -- if any -- who have died in Syria so far has not yet been
revealed by the U.S. sources, who by the way insist on remaining faceless and
nameless.
The parallel with the Vietnam War, where a Nixon administration deeply
involved in a losing war expanded the conflict -- fruitlessly in the event --
to neighboring Cambodia, is obvious. The end result was not changed in Vietnam;
Cambodia itself was plunged into dangerous chaos, which climaxed in the killing
fields, where an estimated 1 million Cambodians died as a result of internal
conflict.
On the U.S. side, no declaration of war preceded the invasion of Syria, in
spite of the requirements of the War Powers Act of 1973. There is no indication
that the Congress was involved in the decision to go in. If members were briefed,
none of them have chosen to share that important information with the American
people. Presumably, the Bush administration's intention is simply to add any
casualties of the Syrian conflict to those of the war in Iraq, which now stand
at more than 1,970. The financial cost of expanding the war to Syria would also
presumably be added to the cost of the Iraq war, now estimated at $201 billion.
The Bush administration would claim that it is expanding the war in Iraq into
Syria to try to bring it to an end, the kind of screwy non-logic that kept us
in Vietnam for a decade and cost 58,193 American lives in the end.
Others would see the attacks in Syria as a desperation political move on the
part of an administration with its back against the wall, with a failed war,
an economy plagued by inflation --1.2 percent in September, a 14.4 percent annual
rate if it continues -- the weak response to Hurricane Katrina, grand jury and
other investigatory attention to senior executive and legislative officials,
and the bird flu flapping its wings toward us on the horizon. The idea, I suppose,
is to distract us by an attack on Syria, now specifically targeted by U.S. Ambassador
to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad.
There is some question as to how America's military leadership feels about
fighting Syria too, given its already heavy commitment in Iraq, Afghanistan
and elsewhere. At least some U.S. military officials must wish that President
Bush and his associates would move away from his administration's "Johnny
One Note," hand-it-to-the-military approach to its problems, now to include
Hurricane Katrina-type disaster relief and the newest possible duty, dealing
with a bird flu epidemic.
And then there is the tired old United Nations. An invasion by one sovereign
member, the United States, of the territory of another sovereign member (Syria),
requires U.N. Security Council action.
What of the regional impact in the Middle East? Some observers have argued
that destabilizing Syria, creating chaos there, even bringing about regime change
away from the current government of President Bashar Assad, is somehow to improve
Israel's security posture in the region. The argument runs that Saddam Hussein's
Iraq was the biggest regional threat to Israel; Bashar Assad's Syria is second.
The United States got rid of Saddam; now it should get rid of the Assad regime
in Damascus.
The trouble with that argument, whether it is made by Americans or Israelis,
is that, in practice, it depends on the validity of the premise that chaos and
civil war -- the disintegration of the state -- in Iraq and Syria are better
for Israel in terms of long-term security than the perpetuation of stable, albeit
nominally hostile regimes.
The evidence of what has happened in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in early
2003 is to the contrary. Could anyone argue that Israel is made safer by a burning
conflict in Iraq that has now attracted Islamic extremist fighters from across
the Middle East, Europe and Asia? Saddam Hussein's regime was bad, but this
is a good deal worse, and looks endless.
Is there any advantage at all to the United States, or to Israel, in replicating
Iraq in Syria?
For that is what is at stake. Syria in its political, ethnic and religious
structure is very similar to Iraq. Iraq, prior to the U.S. bust-up, was ruled
by a Sunni minority, with a Shiite majority and Kurdish and Christian minorities.
Syria is ruled by an Alawite minority, with a Sunni majority and Kurdish and
Christian minorities.
That is the structure, not unlike many states in the Middle East, that the
Bush administration, by word and now by deed, in the form of U.S. forces fighting
in Syria, is in the process of hacking away at.
It seems utterly crazy to me. One could say, "Interesting theory; let's
play it out," if it weren't for the American men and women, not to mention
the Iraqis and now Syrians, dying in pursuit of that policy.
What needs to be done now is for the Congress, and through them, the American
people, and the United Nations and America's allies, the ones who are left,
to have the opportunity to express their thoughts on America's expanding the
Iraq war to Syria. A decision to invade Syria is not a decision for Mr. Bush,
heading a beleaguered administration, to make for us on his own.