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A commission appointed by President Bush to analyze intelligence failures will
be releasing its report today. According to The New York Times, the report "includes
a searing critique of how the CIA and other agencies never properly assessed Saddam
Hussein's political maneuverings or the possibility that he no longer had weapon
stockpiles." But despite its criticism, the report serves to protect the
Bush administration.
The commission, led by Laurence H. Silberman, a senior judge on the United
States Court of Appeals, and former governor and senator Charles S. Robb of
Virginia, has operated in secrecy. All the sessions have been closed to the
public and media. The nine-member commission, which had a professional staff
of more than 60 people, met formally a dozen times at its offices in Arlington,
Va. They reportedly met with President Bush at the White House to speak with
him and his staff this November after the election. The commission had formal
meetings with most top administration intelligence and foreign policy officials,
including interviews with former CIA directors and academic experts on weapons
proliferation. However, the commission did not have subpoena power and did not
seek sworn testimony.
In addition to the co-chairs, the panel includes Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).;
Yale President Richard Levin; former Massachusetts Institute of Technology President
Charles Vest; former Pentagon officials Henry Rowen and Walter Slocombe; former
Deputy CIA Director William Studeman; and former federal appeals court judge
Patricia Wald.
The commission was created by President Bush in response to chief weapons inspector
David Kay's search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Mr. Kay reported
to Congress the failure of his 1,500-person inspection team to find weapons
of mass destruction in Iraq, and flatly asserted "we got it wrong."
In announcing the creation of the Iraq commission, President Bush stated:
"Last week, our former chief weapons inspector, David Kay … stated
that some pre-war intelligence assessments by America and other nations about
Iraq's weapons stockpiles have not been confirmed. We are determined to figure
out why."
The executive order creating the commission issued on Feb. 6, 2004 directed
that "The commission shall specifically examine the Intelligence Community's
intelligence prior to the initiation of Operation Iraqi Freedom and compare
it with the findings of the Iraq Survey Group and other relevant agencies…."
Regarding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the report finds that after
Iraq's defeat in the Persian Gulf war in 1991, international inspectors dismantled
an active nuclear program – which had not produced a weapon – along
with biological agents and chemical weapons. The WMD claims were based on a
series of assumptions by some, not all, of Bush's intelligence agencies that
Iraq reconstituted those programs after inspectors left the country under duress
in 1998. The report finds these assumptions were seriously flawed and that it
may have been a myth Saddam Hussein fostered to retain an air of power.
The report closely reviews a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq published
in 2002. After the invasion of Iraq, portions of the report were released, such
as footnotes that expressed dissenting opinions about WMD, including reports
that Iraq imported aluminum tubes for the production of uranium, or possessed
mobile biological weapons laboratories. In addition to the U.S. being unable
to find WMD, UN inspectors were unable to do so. According to the Times: "The
report particularly ridicules the conclusion that Mr. Hussein's fleet of 'unmanned
aerial vehicles,' which had very limited flying range, posed a major threat.
All of those assertions were repeated by Mr. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney
and other senior officials in the prelude to the war. To this day, Mr. Cheney
has never backed away from his claim…."
The classified version of the report is also critical of intelligence-gathering
in Iran and North Korea, in particular the absence of reliable human intelligence
sources inside both countries. According to the Times:
"The commission's conclusions, if made public, may only fuel the arguments
now heard in Beijing, Seoul, and the capitals of Europe that an intelligence
system that so misjudged Iraq cannot be fully trusted when it comes to the assessments
of how much progress has been made by North Korea and Iran. North Korea has
boasted of producing weapons – but has never tested them – and Iran
has now admitted to covering up major elements of its nuclear program, even
though it denies that it is building weapons."
Laurence McQuillan of the Iraq commission staff told reporters early in the
process that the commission would not be blaming any individuals for intelligence
failures, but instead would look to the future. This, of course, was a recipe
for a whitewash. Whatever happened to official responsibility – a focus
of Bush's 2000 presidential campaign rhetoric? Did the commission ask about
White House influence over intelligence estimates? This should have been more
than a simple investigation into inaccurate intelligence; it should have been
an investigation into why the United States was misled into the costly quagmire
of an undeclared war and subsequent occupation.
Joseph Cirincione, a weapons-proliferation expert at the Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace and author of WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications,
told The San Francisco Chronicle in January: "The administration is protecting
itself by narrowing the inquiry to avoid any investigation of any administration
official when we need to understand the causes of one of the greatest intelligence
failures in U.S. history."
This February, John Dean, President Nixon's White House counsel, described
the commission as a "sham" because it "simply ignores the very
reason he was pressured to create it." He explained, "Bush established
this commission to quiet the public reaction to congressional testimony by his
weapons inspector David Kay." At the time of his testimony, "Kay recommended
to Congress that an independent investigation be undertaken of this intelligence
failure." Dean pointed out how Bush removed the issue from the campaign
by having the commission not report until after the election, thus whenever
the failure to find WMD came up during the campaign, Bush could say his independent
commission was studying it. And the commission's focus was not on misuse of
intelligence or White House influence over the reporting of intelligence, but
rather how to improve intelligence in the future. Dean concluded:
"They have preempted the Congress successfully by appointing a commission
with little expertise in intelligence matters that will not report until after
the election. They have mandated the commission to do everything but what was
being demanded – namely, that it examine the role of the Bush administration
in dealing with the intelligence that was collected, then exaggerated and manipulated."
Thus, the Iraq commission will issue its report today on what may be one of
the most serious intelligence failures in U.S. history. Of course, it will be
critical of intelligence failures, but no one will be blamed. There will be
no examination of whether the White House, State Department, and Department
of Defense manipulated intelligence or unduly shaped intelligence reporting.
President Bush will have escaped a challenging reelection without any serious
discussion of the failure to find WMD. At this point, Bush can once again proclaim"Mission
Accomplished."
It is now left to Congress to fully investigate this matter. Certainly, the
commission found massive intelligence failures and overstatements by the administration;
now, a Congress that was cognizant of its Constitutional authority would at
least initiate an impeachment inquiry with full subpoena power and testimony
under oath in public so Americans can determine whether they were merely misled
into war or whether they were plunged into an illegal war on a platform of fabrications,
deceptions, and manipulations. Nothing short of the accountability of the presidency
is at stake.
Ralph Nader and Kevin Zeese direct the Stop the War campaign at DemocracyRising.US.