Untitled Document
Russia's population is shrinking. According to the Federal Service for State Statistics,
the worst-case scenario will see just 77 million Russians left by the middle of
the century, with 123 million at best.
The main cause of the nation's steady extinction is a low birth rate. In 1989
Russia's population was 147 million, but this figure began steadily decreasing
in subsequent years. In the 1990s, migration compensated for 40% of natural
population loss, but in recent years this has also started to dry up. Experts
say that a demographic crisis is in evidence and that only higher birth rates
can help the nation extricate itself.
According to Yekaterina Lakhova, chairwoman of the State Duma Committee for
Women, Family and Children, birth rates are low because the state does not provide
practical support for families with children. In an interview with RIA Novosti,
Lakhova admitted that her latest attempt to solve this problem had ended in
a fiasco. With her colleague Andrei Isayev, she prepared a draft law providing
for real aid to new parents, including a one-off 20,000-ruble grant per birth
and increased allowances for single mothers, of whom there are about 900,000.
The government, however, turned these proposals down.
"The authorities are still unaware of the impending danger to the nation,"
Lakhova said.
Valery Yelizarov, director of the Population Research Center under Moscow State
University, is more skeptical.
"I do not even want to ponder such long-term forecasts, because all of
them are cases of 'What if... ?'," he said. "It is practically impossible
to take this 'if' into account"
"Today, we can confidently say what our labor resources will be in the
2020s. Those who will reach working and reproductive age by that time have already
been born. Other forecasts are highly relative," he said, adding that the
population is likely to continue decreasing.
The rate of decrease depends on the counry's socio-economic situation, the
state's ability to support families, and many other factors. The consequences
of the 1998 economic crisis are still being felt. But if in a decade the economic
situation in the country improves, incomes grow and the state takes care of
birth rates, the tendency may change noticeably.
"So far, the authorities have been busy tackling urgent social problems",
Yelizarov said. "However, they will have to address these problems sooner
or later. The sooner they start tackling them, the less dramatic the reality
will be compared with current scenarios of the disappearance of a strong Russia
from the geopolitical map of the world."
