The joint military exercises authorised by Congress as of Jun. 1 will involve the arrival of over 150 U.S. troops in Paraguay.

In May, Congress granted immunity from prosecution to the U.S. soldiers participating in the 13 operations approved so far, two of which are already underway.

But as far as Paraguayan political analyst and historian Milda Rivarola is concerned, ”in practice, there has already been a (U.S.) base operating in Paraguay for over 50 years.”

While the actual physical infrastructure of a military base does not exist, the U.S. armed forces have had a continued, ongoing presence in the country, she said in an interview with IPS.

”In the past, they needed congressional authorisation every six months, but now they have been granted permission to be here for a year and a half,” she commented.

Rivarola said that the United States is keeping a particularly close eye on the tri-border area where Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil meet. The region is home to a large Arab community, which various intelligence services have identified as a source of financing and shelter for Islamic fundamentalist groups.

There has yet to be any solid proof put forward of activities of this kind in the area, which is however well-known as a hotspot for arms trafficking and the smuggling of counterfeit goods that primarily end up in Brazil.

Rivarola noted that the attention of international intelligence services is mainly focused on the Paraguayan side of the triple border, because Paraguay is considered ”the most easily pressured country in Mercosur,” or the Southern Common Market trade bloc, whose other full members are Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay.

Through an agreement reached between the governments of Paraguay and the United States on joint military exercises and bilateral exchanges, Asunción relinquished the right to subject the visiting troops to the jurisdiction of the local judicial system, international courts, or any other court outside the United States.

Most significantly, this means the U.S. troops in Paraguay could not be taken before the International Criminal Court if they were accused of crimes against humanity, genocide or war crimes.

”These important developments occur in Paraguay without anyone finding out,” complained political analyst, journalist and human rights activist Alfredo Boccia Paz, who told IPS that the legislators ”approved a framework agreement with no debate and without any information on it being published in the press.”

He concurred with Rivarola that the lawmakers did not even know what they were voting on.

Another aspect underlined by Boccia Paz is the shift of Paraguayan foreign policy in the direction of the United States.

Traditionally, Paraguay has sought to maintain a balance in its relations with its two giant neighbours, Brazil and Argentina, giving special attention to one or the other depending on the circumstances, in order to obtain concessions.

Examples of this policy focus were the construction of the Itaipú and Yacyretá dams, built jointly with Brazil and Argentina, respectively.

But after the 2004 kidnapping and subsequent murder of Cecilia Cubas, the daughter of former president Raúl Cubas (1998-1999), and the botched investigation of the crime, Vice President Luis Castiglioni began to forge closer ties with the U.S. government.

According to diplomatic sources, that has not particularly pleased President Nicanor Duarte.

Castiglioni officially announced this week that in late 2006, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) will open an office in the U.S. Embassy in Asunción.

This was agreed in early July when Castiglioni visited the United States, where he was received by Vice President Dick Cheney and Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Roger Noriega.

”That's a big fuss to make over a vice president of Paraguay,” said Boccia Paz, referring to the high-level delegation that met with Castiglioni, treatment that is not frequently seen in Washington towards small Latin American countries.

Boccia Paz said he and other analysts see the expansion of the period that U.S. troops can stay in the country, the immunity from prosecution they were granted, and the announcement of 13 joint military exercises as the initial groundwork for the eventual installation of a U.S. base in Paraguay.

”Once the United States arrives, it takes it a long time to leave, said (Argentine Nobel Peace laureate Adolfo) Pérez Esquivel. And that really frightens me,” remarked the journalist.

He also said drug trafficking and social movements have been identified by the United States as sources of conflict in smaller, weaker countries like Paraguay.

Both the Paraguayan Foreign Ministry and the U.S. Embassy in Asunción have released statements officially denying plans to set up a U.S. military base in this country of nearly 6.5 million people.

”The national government has not reached any agreement with the United States for the establishment of a U.S. military base” in Paraguay, says a communiqué signed by Foreign Minister Leila Rachid.

The statement issued by the U.S. Embassy said the same thing, and added that the U.S. government had ”no intentions” of posting soldiers for long periods of time in Paraguay.

The first joint military exercises include plans for humanitarian medical assistance for ”hundreds or thousands” of peasant farmers and other people in need in the central and northern departments (provinces) of Canindeyú, Caazapá and Ñeembucú, stated the U.S. communiqué.

The statement also denied that the United States had any interest in the Guaraní aquifer except that this resource may serve to increase the prosperity and well-being of people in this region.

The Guaraní aquifer is one of the world's largest reserves of fresh water, covering an area of 1.2 million square kilometres in South America. An estimated 70 percent of it is located in Brazil, 19 percent in Argentina, six percent in Paraguay and five percent in Uruguay.

The aquifer has attracted the interest of several international organisations, and according to civil society groups it holds a special interest for the United States, as a source of what will soon be a scarce resource.

The first two joint military operations have already begun. The first consists of providing counterterrorism training to 65 Paraguayan air force officers, Colonel Jorge Ramírez, the army's assistant director of communications, told IPS.

The second is a medical assistance programme (MEDRETE-1) involving 35 troops and physicians from Puerto Rico who have been providing health care to a daily average of 1,000 campesinos (peasant farmers) in the northern department of Canindeyú since Jul. 26, added Ramírez.

”These missions are always disguised as humanitarian aid. It is true that assistance is being provided,” said Boccia Paz. ”But what Paraguay does not and cannot control is the total number of agents that enter the country.”

At a meeting in late July, foreign ministers Celso Amorim of Brazil and Reinaldo Gargano of Uruguay downplayed the significance of the U.S. military presence and talk of possible plans for a military base in Paraguay.

Nevertheless, the Brazilian response was immediate. In late July, the Brazilian army also launched military manoeuvres along that country's border with Paraguay, parallel to the arrival of U.S. troops in Paraguay.

In an unprecedented deployment, Brazilian paratroopers staged a mock occupation of the Furnas electrical substation, which distributes the energy generated by the Itaipú dam.

Sources with the Paraguayan Foreign Ministry who spoke to IPS gave little importance to the Brazilian military manoeuvres and denied that the deployment of Brazilian troops near the border was a response to the joint Paraguayan-U.S. exercises.

Civil society groups, meanwhile, are organising protests against the U.S. military presence.

Since 2002, 46 U.S. military operations have been conducted in Paraguay, including visits, special exercises and humanitarian missions, especially in the northern departments of San Pedro and Concepción, the eastern department of Alto Paraná - whose capital is Ciudad del Este, in the tri-border region - and the western department of Boquerón.

The latest joint exercise was a humanitarian mission carried out in 2003 in the department of Concepción, where landless campesinos have been mobilising in favour of agrarian reform.

At the start of the Duarte administration, in August 2003, a request by Washington for immunity from prosecution for U.S. troops was denied.

In December, the United States cancelled 330 million dollars in economic aid to some 10 countries, including Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela, because they refused to sign bilateral agreements that would ensure U.S. troops and other citizens immunity from prosecution by the International Criminal Court. (END/2005)